Poll: Ossoff Increases Lead in GA6; Runoff Likely

In our final poll of the GA6 jungle primary-style special election, some slight movement indicates that Ossoff’s well-funded machine is gradually increasing his support, while Handel has maintained her status as the leading Republican.

Toplines:

The results aren’t altogether different from a few weeks ago, though among early voters Ossoff has a commanding lead at 63%. The data there is limited (57 respondents), so don’t take that as gospel. Hill has managed to gather additional support from older Cobb voters, though it’s unlikely to make a difference on election day. Moody is undoubtedly the surprise: we fully expected him to crest north of 15%, but older voters have largely thrown their support behind more ‘establishment’ candidates, such as Hill and Handel. Speaking of Handel: she maintains her support in Fulton county and has appeal across age demographics.

The runoff results are effectively unchanged; each race remains within the margin of error. Please note that these results were weighted separately from the rest of the survey to reflect the likely voter composition of these hypothetical races.

Handel vs. Ossoff:

Gray vs. Ossoff:

Hill vs. Ossoff:

Moody vs. Ossoff:

The usual caveats to these sorts of hypothetical match-ups apply, but we obviously care most about the Handel vs. Ossoff table. To be frank, Handel should be concerned; the undecided vote in this race is relatively large compared to the other head-to-head hypotheticals. Moreover, that undecided number has remained effectively unchanged in the past three weeks. Those who remain undecided might stay home for the runoff, leaving the Ossoff campaign (and its bottomless coffers) in the position of turning out unlikely voters.

Meanwhile, Trump approval in the 6th remains almost exactly the same:

Click here to view the full results and methodology