Breaking: Trump, Cruz and Rubio within 2 points in Iowa
We polled Iowa over the weekend for the upcoming Republican caucus, and the final results show that Trump has lost his edge, while Rubio has climbed to within one point of Cruz. In fact, all three candidates are within two points of each other; this race is anyone’s game.
The race has narrowed thanks to several key factors: expected evangelical turnout; the Cruz voter scorecard debacle; and Trump’s debate absence. Among those who watched the Republican debate, voters prefer Cruz and Rubio to Trump by a margin of 10 points. As the results came in, there was a marked shift in support for Rubio on Saturday night, likely as a result of Cruz’s mailer mishap. Nevertheless, Cruz maintains relatively strong performance among evangelicals, who we expect to comprise nearly 48% of caucus-goers.